* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/10/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 64 65 57 46 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 64 65 57 46 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 58 61 58 46 37 31 31 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 14 17 22 48 72 67 53 46 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -9 0 11 26 11 1 10 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 95 226 250 234 200 215 208 220 252 261 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.1 25.4 17.4 12.7 11.3 12.9 11.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 141 139 130 115 81 74 72 72 71 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 121 122 117 105 77 72 70 70 69 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.3 -50.1 -49.1 -48.7 -47.9 -46.4 -46.3 -46.3 -45.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 50 51 43 38 39 46 56 60 62 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 29 31 29 30 35 39 35 33 31 22 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 58 78 96 117 110 127 164 199 306 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 19 50 100 109 104 76 94 50 55 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -7 3 6 -22 30 -159 -200 -13 -16 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1119 996 880 722 522 2 587 1273 1231 707 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 35.1 36.4 38.7 40.9 47.4 54.0 58.5 60.9 62.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.0 61.5 60.9 59.8 58.6 54.1 47.1 37.8 26.7 14.9 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 19 24 30 38 37 32 30 29 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 9 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -3. -9. -13. -16. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 5. 3. 0. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 15. 7. -4. -18. -35. -41. -47. -49. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/10/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/10/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)