* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/10/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 66 62 56 44 34 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 70 66 62 56 44 34 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 71 67 65 62 57 50 43 38 34 32 32 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 17 14 18 31 26 12 24 44 48 31 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 6 7 11 3 4 7 15 0 -3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 11 25 17 7 27 24 49 184 203 208 246 257 234 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.8 23.9 21.1 17.4 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 130 129 128 124 101 87 76 72 72 72 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 108 109 109 107 89 79 71 68 68 68 68 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -50.5 -50.5 -49.5 -50.1 -52.4 -55.3 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 30 31 31 29 28 34 35 36 32 32 48 59 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 17 15 15 10 9 13 14 9 6 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -43 -58 -66 -69 -62 -7 -4 -16 -70 -103 -130 -170 200 MB DIV -29 -27 -55 -53 -43 -19 4 16 -2 -10 2 0 19 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -5 -19 -16 10 -8 -22 -25 -40 -32 0 7 LAND (KM) 1644 1615 1588 1488 1388 1070 764 787 1078 1449 1153 739 320 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.6 33.6 34.3 35.0 37.9 41.7 45.3 48.8 51.5 53.1 54.0 53.9 LONG(DEG W) 44.1 44.9 45.6 46.5 47.3 47.8 46.5 43.1 38.3 33.2 27.4 21.3 14.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 10 12 17 21 23 22 20 19 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 7 4 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. -23. -28. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -6. -8. -5. -4. -9. -12. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -19. -31. -41. -45. -55. -68. -76. -71. -67. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/10/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -41.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 47.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/10/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)