* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/10/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 66 61 55 45 38 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 71 66 61 55 45 38 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 69 66 63 57 51 45 40 36 33 34 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 18 27 25 23 11 27 49 38 16 7 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 8 11 13 1 8 16 11 3 0 5 5 SHEAR DIR 11 14 10 18 27 35 151 204 209 212 243 228 204 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.5 23.5 20.3 16.7 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 129 129 127 122 98 84 75 71 71 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 108 109 108 105 87 76 70 67 67 67 67 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -49.8 -51.2 -54.2 -55.2 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 30 29 29 27 33 36 40 40 34 31 45 48 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 13 13 11 8 9 14 8 8 11 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -66 -77 -73 -80 -50 -2 13 -8 -82 -112 -112 -115 200 MB DIV -20 -50 -44 -30 -45 5 29 26 2 -9 31 20 34 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -17 -19 3 -7 0 -4 -29 -40 8 -1 24 LAND (KM) 1637 1592 1548 1434 1321 992 767 852 1119 1452 1193 842 478 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.6 33.8 34.7 35.5 38.7 42.5 45.9 49.3 51.8 53.4 54.1 53.8 LONG(DEG W) 44.8 45.5 46.2 47.0 47.8 47.7 45.4 41.9 37.7 33.2 28.1 22.9 17.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 11 12 18 21 22 21 18 17 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 4 8 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -12. -18. -24. -29. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -3. -10. -10. -8. -5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -20. -30. -37. -40. -57. -65. -65. -62. -59. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/10/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/10/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)