* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/10/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 55 54 52 45 32 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 55 47 48 42 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 51 49 40 32 27 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 22 34 53 72 54 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 12 21 25 12 2 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 258 217 218 206 209 224 247 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.4 24.4 19.4 15.7 12.0 11.1 12.0 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 122 107 85 78 74 72 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 110 99 81 75 72 70 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.0 -49.8 -49.1 -48.1 -46.4 -46.4 -45.9 -45.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 43 37 37 41 52 61 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 28 36 35 36 34 31 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 95 110 123 133 153 204 223 314 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 98 108 123 106 66 92 60 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -12 -21 39 -22 -135 -111 25 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 884 732 535 295 -23 631 1405 1234 700 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.4 38.6 40.8 44.3 47.7 55.0 60.4 62.4 62.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.8 59.7 58.5 56.4 54.3 46.7 36.9 26.1 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 24 31 38 41 40 32 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 15 CX,CY: 5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 3. -3. -9. -13. -16. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. -29. -33. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -20. -24. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 4. 4. 6. 5. 3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 4. 2. -5. -18. -35. -42. -48. -53. -55. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/10/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/10/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)