* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142012 09/10/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 43 56 71 81 91 96 100 101 102 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 43 56 71 81 91 96 100 101 102 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 43 55 68 81 88 90 89 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 3 5 2 3 2 6 6 6 6 10 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 0 7 7 7 3 5 SHEAR DIR 67 89 111 199 235 28 148 260 274 284 268 258 237 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 136 138 139 141 143 146 150 152 154 156 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 136 138 137 136 137 137 139 138 139 139 130 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.0 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 11 10 11 10 10 10 8 7 700-500 MB RH 67 63 63 63 65 63 60 58 57 60 58 68 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 14 15 16 19 19 22 23 27 29 32 850 MB ENV VOR 118 114 115 106 109 94 84 50 20 0 -30 3 84 200 MB DIV 55 40 18 14 28 50 35 38 32 72 28 53 84 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 1 0 -1 14 22 31 25 25 LAND (KM) 1970 1860 1766 1687 1608 1536 1528 1450 1346 1298 1358 1490 1672 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 17 17 15 13 12 11 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 24 29 31 47 58 51 41 29 35 40 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 336 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 12. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 18. 31. 46. 56. 66. 71. 75. 76. 77. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 FOURTEEN 09/10/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 FOURTEEN 09/10/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)