* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/11/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 66 62 60 53 38 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 67 56 55 53 46 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 56 52 47 38 32 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 40 52 64 66 57 45 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 17 20 14 14 0 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 207 201 202 205 223 251 250 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 19.1 16.0 12.5 12.3 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 84 78 75 74 71 68 69 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 79 75 73 73 69 66 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.1 -48.2 -47.5 -46.3 -46.6 -45.2 -44.3 -45.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 39 43 42 48 59 68 56 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 30 37 38 35 36 35 30 23 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 122 129 139 106 143 202 294 289 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 126 108 66 58 84 42 17 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -32 12 -1 -74 -174 -141 28 -26 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 505 290 -23 264 576 1330 1451 1099 523 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.1 44.4 47.6 51.2 54.8 60.2 63.6 63.4 61.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.5 56.8 55.0 51.3 47.5 38.2 31.4 22.7 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 30 35 39 43 40 30 19 22 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 28 CX,CY: 10/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -22. -26. -29. -31. -32. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -16. -18. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -31. -35. -39. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -23. -26. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. -1. -8. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -3. -5. -12. -27. -45. -62. -72. -81. -88. -90. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/11/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/11/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)