* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/11/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 54 49 47 42 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 60 54 49 47 42 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 59 55 52 46 40 36 33 31 31 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 26 26 23 7 34 51 54 39 32 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 12 9 3 14 6 11 1 8 7 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 22 28 44 128 188 209 223 245 283 264 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.3 25.5 23.7 19.7 14.4 14.2 13.8 13.7 14.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 119 113 101 85 75 72 71 70 71 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 104 100 91 80 72 69 67 67 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -49.3 -47.9 -48.5 -51.9 -55.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 29 32 35 33 34 37 40 38 40 40 42 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 9 7 6 8 12 10 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -86 -75 -45 -19 -32 -3 57 19 -46 -134 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -26 -10 -5 1 -1 -3 -12 -12 -27 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -18 4 1 -7 -4 -67 -163 -88 87 29 28 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1395 1239 1084 908 762 835 1376 1126 722 386 59 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.8 36.3 37.7 39.8 41.8 46.5 52.2 55.7 57.1 57.3 55.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.8 47.9 48.0 47.2 46.4 41.9 34.4 27.3 20.0 12.8 6.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 18 21 25 33 32 24 20 19 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -25. -27. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -4. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -18. -23. -33. -50. -63. -68. -71. -74. -75. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/11/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/11/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)