* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/11/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 51 47 46 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 56 50 46 44 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 51 46 41 33 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 45 46 58 71 69 59 48 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 23 13 14 10 1 0 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 204 198 204 214 240 235 238 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.5 16.2 13.0 13.0 10.4 11.2 12.0 11.5 10.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 78 75 75 72 70 70 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 75 73 73 71 68 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.0 -48.9 -47.6 -46.7 -46.4 -46.0 -45.0 -43.6 -44.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 43 38 43 53 61 64 57 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 32 37 33 34 35 32 26 25 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 132 130 109 135 163 232 286 306 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 93 80 66 93 54 41 44 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -22 -82 -182 -148 4 -35 41 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 301 30 182 551 884 1463 1163 707 360 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.0 47.2 50.4 53.7 56.9 61.1 62.4 62.4 61.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.3 54.5 51.6 47.6 43.6 34.5 24.7 15.2 6.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 33 37 39 40 35 27 23 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 33 CX,CY: 11/ 31 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -9. -12. -15. -18. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -20. -25. -29. -33. -38. -42. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 2. -1. -6. -8. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -14. -24. -40. -52. -71. -79. -86. -92. -94. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/11/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 57.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/11/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)