* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL122012 09/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 51 47 43 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 56 52 48 44 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 54 50 45 41 33 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 57 61 66 68 61 51 38 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 11 12 8 0 4 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 196 202 213 220 246 239 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 15.9 12.4 12.4 9.9 10.7 12.2 11.1 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 75 74 73 72 69 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 73 72 71 70 67 65 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.3 -47.2 -45.9 -46.0 -46.1 -45.8 -43.8 -43.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 41 45 54 61 66 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 37 37 38 37 34 28 24 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 138 109 160 173 191 242 318 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 84 66 104 95 63 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -96 -207 -135 -152 -8 -45 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -31 246 508 917 1320 1378 1105 702 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 47.7 51.3 54.8 57.5 60.2 62.9 64.2 63.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.1 51.9 48.6 43.5 38.4 28.7 22.0 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 38 41 39 38 32 21 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 33 CX,CY: 11/ 31 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -22. -25. -26. -28. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -7. -13. -16. -20. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -23. -26. -31. -35. -40. -44. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -13. -19. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 3. 4. 7. 15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -17. -31. -48. -66. -80. -89. -96.-101.-101. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122012 LESLIE 09/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 62.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122012 LESLIE 09/11/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)