* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 34 31 29 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 31 29 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 38 34 31 29 25 23 21 19 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 23 13 17 33 51 48 22 33 16 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 3 6 7 21 1 2 10 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 39 45 67 150 188 213 216 252 275 272 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.1 23.3 21.2 18.7 14.1 13.8 13.1 13.4 14.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 111 99 90 83 75 71 69 69 71 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 99 90 83 79 72 68 66 66 68 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -50.9 -50.5 -48.0 -46.3 -47.1 -50.8 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 31 32 36 35 43 45 44 50 49 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 6 8 11 9 15 18 12 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -53 -46 -67 -75 15 155 58 -12 -117 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -16 2 2 5 14 6 -14 -18 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 -11 -57 -104 -215 -29 76 71 28 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1050 879 759 813 940 1433 983 675 297 46 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.2 40.5 42.7 45.3 47.9 53.9 57.4 58.6 58.3 55.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.5 46.4 45.3 42.8 40.2 31.9 24.4 17.4 10.9 6.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 24 27 32 36 34 23 18 17 20 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -8. -5. -2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -13. -12. -14. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 7. 9. 3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 3. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -14. -15. -20. -23. -32. -48. -55. -58. -60. -60. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/11/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)