* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142012 09/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 53 61 68 70 71 71 71 72 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 53 61 68 70 71 71 71 72 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 34 37 41 50 56 59 58 57 54 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 5 4 5 7 13 11 20 21 25 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -6 -3 -1 5 7 11 9 4 3 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 60 55 7 321 279 269 280 293 283 281 285 266 246 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 139 139 141 145 148 149 150 150 144 136 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 134 135 136 138 138 136 135 133 125 116 111 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 9 8 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 63 62 65 62 61 59 65 68 58 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 16 18 19 21 25 25 25 27 29 32 850 MB ENV VOR 107 105 98 95 88 70 38 12 -26 -21 -1 43 56 200 MB DIV 9 31 43 25 18 62 33 57 37 15 63 49 54 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -4 0 2 -2 15 14 33 30 37 11 10 LAND (KM) 1635 1586 1544 1534 1537 1575 1564 1502 1514 1623 1807 1726 1583 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 33 37 43 46 43 49 40 47 24 15 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 9. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 31. 39. 40. 41. 41. 41. 42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 FOURTEEN 09/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 FOURTEEN 09/11/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)