* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL132012 09/11/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 26 25 23 18 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 26 25 23 18 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 29 25 23 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 11 14 23 30 47 48 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 7 2 8 18 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 52 143 180 199 211 234 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 23.7 21.6 18.9 16.2 15.0 14.6 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 102 92 83 77 74 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 92 85 79 73 71 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -48.6 -47.3 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 32 37 35 35 43 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 10 12 13 6 25 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -44 -65 -99 -92 -19 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 6 0 4 5 11 -19 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 -15 -56 -42 -80 -224 2 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 892 808 826 1034 1291 1182 622 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.2 42.6 45.0 47.5 49.9 53.3 55.2 55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.6 44.7 42.7 39.0 35.3 27.9 19.4 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 28 32 35 32 27 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 18 CX,CY: 3/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 12. 5. -1. -5. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -5. -2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -22. -25. -28. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. -1. 16. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -10. -12. -17. -8. -29. -38. -43. -46. -49. -48. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132012 MICHAEL 09/11/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132012 MICHAEL 09/11/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)