* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142012 09/11/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 44 53 60 63 65 65 67 66 70 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 44 53 60 63 65 65 67 66 70 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 44 47 49 48 48 47 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 8 11 9 17 12 23 21 27 21 25 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 3 4 14 7 7 2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 253 297 291 266 251 265 283 281 263 262 249 249 228 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 141 144 148 149 150 151 150 142 135 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 130 133 136 138 139 137 136 133 130 121 113 110 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.0 -52.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 60 63 63 64 58 62 65 64 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 19 19 23 25 25 27 27 29 30 36 850 MB ENV VOR 94 91 80 71 64 46 25 -4 -9 9 39 59 96 200 MB DIV 42 50 25 31 49 54 44 33 34 46 74 63 103 700-850 TADV -4 -5 1 8 4 17 38 23 42 30 12 5 4 LAND (KM) 1681 1670 1668 1674 1684 1640 1530 1470 1508 1646 1851 1773 1718 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.6 21.2 22.8 24.6 26.5 28.3 29.8 30.8 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 44.3 45.2 46.5 47.8 50.1 51.8 53.2 54.0 53.8 52.5 51.3 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 14 14 12 11 11 9 9 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 39 40 36 43 47 55 33 54 35 23 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 23. 30. 33. 35. 35. 37. 36. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 FOURTEEN 09/11/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 FOURTEEN 09/11/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)