* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142012 09/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 55 63 71 73 77 78 80 77 80 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 55 63 71 73 77 78 80 77 80 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 46 50 56 60 62 62 62 62 63 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 8 7 10 13 10 15 22 25 25 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 4 5 11 13 11 8 0 2 2 7 SHEAR DIR 305 283 266 260 262 276 278 274 248 258 234 246 250 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 141 144 146 149 151 151 151 146 139 134 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 135 138 139 140 138 135 132 126 118 113 111 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 64 61 64 65 62 60 58 59 64 61 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 18 17 20 21 25 25 28 30 32 31 35 850 MB ENV VOR 92 82 71 66 62 35 21 -4 9 29 86 94 119 200 MB DIV 48 19 20 48 58 52 69 30 65 85 60 60 31 700-850 TADV -5 0 5 -1 3 21 30 25 24 18 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1636 1642 1660 1673 1638 1555 1451 1459 1559 1719 1836 1771 1734 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.9 23.8 25.7 27.5 29.0 30.2 30.9 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 44.6 45.7 46.8 48.1 49.3 51.3 53.0 54.0 54.2 53.5 51.9 50.4 49.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 14 13 13 11 9 9 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 38 41 39 46 49 40 43 30 23 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 8. 10. 11. 13. 11. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 28. 36. 38. 42. 43. 45. 42. 45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 FOURTEEN 09/12/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 FOURTEEN 09/12/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)