* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/12/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 51 56 60 67 68 71 74 72 72 73 72 V (KT) LAND 40 46 51 56 60 67 68 71 74 72 72 73 72 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 50 54 57 62 63 62 61 59 59 60 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 13 15 15 18 18 29 30 24 19 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 4 5 7 17 6 5 5 -1 4 2 5 SHEAR DIR 252 255 255 248 274 268 260 238 246 257 248 246 252 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 145 146 148 150 152 152 147 141 137 134 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 138 138 140 139 137 132 125 119 117 115 115 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 64 62 64 65 63 61 61 63 63 61 50 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 20 20 20 21 24 22 24 28 30 31 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 80 73 66 59 44 27 0 10 22 57 100 134 136 200 MB DIV 21 21 57 56 50 60 43 57 82 76 62 42 34 700-850 TADV 0 4 2 14 20 45 22 36 20 17 6 8 11 LAND (KM) 1637 1656 1680 1646 1625 1489 1467 1551 1682 1821 1794 1739 1715 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.4 23.3 25.7 27.5 28.7 29.6 30.6 31.3 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.0 47.2 48.4 49.5 50.5 52.4 53.9 54.3 53.7 52.7 51.5 49.5 47.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 11 8 7 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 37 40 41 40 49 49 40 43 31 28 17 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 3. 5. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 27. 28. 31. 34. 32. 33. 33. 32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/12/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/12/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)