* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/12/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 67 70 76 75 80 78 79 77 74 69 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 67 70 76 75 80 78 79 77 74 69 V (KT) LGE mod 50 57 62 67 70 73 72 70 68 67 67 69 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 8 13 9 14 16 18 22 33 22 23 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 8 7 16 10 6 9 5 -3 1 6 1 SHEAR DIR 246 260 265 272 266 267 269 244 236 244 255 247 252 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 148 150 151 152 149 144 139 136 134 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 137 140 140 138 135 129 122 120 117 114 110 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 64 63 61 60 61 64 53 49 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 21 22 25 22 28 28 32 32 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 76 66 57 43 36 13 -20 2 35 102 129 148 166 200 MB DIV 21 51 57 43 62 43 56 83 72 20 33 32 17 700-850 TADV 2 -2 5 17 25 24 44 32 12 4 3 8 2 LAND (KM) 1631 1658 1647 1629 1567 1469 1522 1632 1763 1826 1775 1734 1709 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.5 20.2 21.1 22.0 24.0 26.2 28.0 29.3 30.3 31.0 31.8 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 47.0 48.1 49.1 50.2 51.2 52.9 53.6 53.7 53.2 51.7 49.3 47.1 45.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 12 10 8 7 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 35 40 45 48 48 48 31 19 14 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 7. 7. 11. 10. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 20. 26. 25. 30. 28. 29. 27. 24. 19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/12/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/12/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 5( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 3( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)