* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP112012 09/12/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 58 63 65 62 53 46 36 31 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 58 63 65 62 53 46 36 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 35 36 36 34 32 30 27 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 18 18 19 16 16 22 13 12 14 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -1 0 -5 -2 0 -1 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 5 3 359 358 346 334 325 323 323 353 14 56 191 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.5 26.8 26.3 25.9 24.3 23.0 21.4 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 153 150 146 139 132 127 123 106 93 76 63 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 81 78 76 75 72 64 58 54 52 51 53 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 9 10 11 12 15 17 18 19 17 17 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -22 -22 -19 -19 -2 -7 7 -6 -8 -32 -27 -17 200 MB DIV 51 35 74 73 41 77 54 13 41 -23 -42 -10 13 700-850 TADV -2 0 -3 -7 -5 -8 -7 -5 -7 -1 0 9 0 LAND (KM) 306 327 359 407 461 539 549 626 678 807 910 1022 1162 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 9 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 44 39 34 27 22 16 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 21. 21. 19. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. 18. 15. 15. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 33. 35. 32. 23. 16. 6. 1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 INVEST 09/12/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)