* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/12/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 68 71 71 71 73 73 71 71 66 65 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 68 71 71 71 73 73 71 71 66 65 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 65 68 69 68 65 63 61 59 60 63 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 15 12 17 15 15 22 33 34 37 27 36 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 14 14 15 11 9 3 -4 -6 -2 -4 6 SHEAR DIR 241 242 260 262 274 267 239 266 261 262 251 265 255 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 148 150 149 151 152 145 138 133 128 127 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 140 140 138 136 134 126 118 113 110 110 107 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -50.8 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 61 59 60 62 63 56 46 46 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 22 22 24 21 23 27 29 30 32 30 35 850 MB ENV VOR 74 63 49 37 27 -15 0 5 51 89 143 142 157 200 MB DIV 56 70 66 57 51 32 78 69 82 41 52 27 36 700-850 TADV 3 22 26 34 41 35 41 32 14 7 11 12 21 LAND (KM) 1667 1648 1625 1558 1495 1479 1574 1755 1770 1655 1570 1547 1595 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.5 21.3 22.3 23.2 25.3 27.5 29.3 30.8 32.0 33.1 34.1 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 48.2 49.3 50.4 51.4 52.3 53.5 54.0 53.3 51.8 50.0 48.1 45.3 41.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 38 35 42 46 44 48 54 31 18 12 8 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 16. 16. 16. 18. 18. 17. 16. 11. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/12/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/12/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 4( 6) 4( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 1( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)