* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP112012 09/12/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 49 53 60 64 66 62 52 44 33 24 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 49 53 60 64 66 62 52 44 33 24 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 45 47 48 47 44 40 33 26 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 15 17 13 18 13 13 8 9 4 10 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -5 -7 -3 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 335 358 350 349 336 346 325 336 352 39 90 163 202 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.5 26.6 25.8 25.2 23.9 22.0 20.2 19.0 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 148 142 138 130 122 116 102 82 63 61 61 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 75 69 65 58 52 47 47 41 42 38 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 9 11 11 12 13 14 15 13 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -2 3 0 0 17 25 22 7 -5 -2 0 0 200 MB DIV 43 78 77 46 28 39 18 34 9 -19 -9 8 19 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -4 -2 -4 -6 2 -5 3 2 9 3 2 LAND (KM) 198 255 314 366 413 369 438 488 608 661 754 910 1013 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.8 23.8 24.8 25.8 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.2 108.1 108.9 109.6 111.3 113.6 115.8 117.9 119.9 121.8 123.9 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 32 21 19 18 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 12. 10. 6. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 8. 9. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 18. 25. 29. 31. 28. 17. 9. -2. -10. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 KRISTY 09/12/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)