* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/13/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 70 71 72 74 75 76 76 76 76 73 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 70 71 72 74 75 76 76 76 76 73 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 66 67 67 66 64 62 61 63 68 73 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 17 17 20 23 30 29 19 15 14 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 13 11 7 9 0 -3 1 0 7 5 6 SHEAR DIR 228 240 257 250 264 239 248 254 244 257 254 266 253 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 150 151 154 149 139 136 133 131 126 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 140 139 139 139 131 120 117 115 113 110 108 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.1 -50.6 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 8 6 6 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 62 64 62 63 60 51 50 43 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 23 22 23 23 24 26 29 31 32 32 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 72 60 43 36 31 15 24 30 68 103 125 133 133 200 MB DIV 80 86 63 54 50 86 76 81 30 29 18 41 18 700-850 TADV 9 21 27 27 29 40 24 17 -5 6 13 28 23 LAND (KM) 1614 1610 1549 1491 1446 1492 1704 1813 1755 1726 1713 1820 1994 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 21.2 22.1 23.1 24.1 26.5 28.9 30.4 31.1 31.8 32.7 32.9 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 49.5 50.5 51.4 52.3 53.2 54.2 53.6 52.1 49.9 47.4 44.7 41.6 38.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 42 45 45 44 34 24 15 11 4 0 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/13/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/13/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 1( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)