* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP112012 09/13/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 55 59 65 66 68 61 51 43 32 24 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 55 59 65 66 68 61 51 43 32 24 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 50 51 51 49 46 42 37 30 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 20 19 17 12 8 6 8 7 8 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -8 -6 0 0 1 1 -1 -1 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 356 352 343 339 347 334 309 311 26 35 132 182 198 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.4 26.7 25.9 25.2 23.9 21.9 20.9 20.1 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 147 142 137 130 122 116 102 81 69 59 58 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 72 71 64 63 59 54 55 50 48 49 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 13 14 16 16 18 17 17 17 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -7 -6 -5 7 8 8 0 -3 -14 -19 -34 -38 200 MB DIV 70 69 63 41 49 30 40 28 -19 -32 3 24 2 700-850 TADV -9 -5 -2 -2 -4 -4 0 -2 0 0 4 2 -8 LAND (KM) 268 306 346 386 355 313 380 408 533 616 762 804 764 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.4 20.9 22.0 23.3 24.1 24.2 24.7 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.7 108.4 109.2 109.9 111.4 113.0 114.9 117.4 119.6 121.5 122.3 122.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 12 12 10 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 34 25 17 17 16 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 8. 5. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 9. 13. 12. 11. 11. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 25. 26. 28. 21. 11. 3. -8. -16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 KRISTY 09/13/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)