* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/13/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 66 64 66 67 69 69 68 69 69 67 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 66 64 66 67 69 69 68 69 69 67 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 63 63 61 59 56 56 59 65 70 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 21 17 22 26 33 27 20 11 18 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 11 7 14 8 7 5 -2 -1 0 5 7 4 SHEAR DIR 247 262 252 251 262 244 256 246 259 264 253 229 256 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 151 151 152 152 145 138 136 135 130 125 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 141 138 138 134 126 120 118 118 114 110 106 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -51.7 -51.3 -50.5 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 7 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 63 59 59 64 59 62 62 57 48 48 43 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 23 22 19 22 25 29 30 29 29 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 57 37 32 29 -8 6 -5 18 41 88 105 132 137 200 MB DIV 76 53 52 41 14 103 53 76 40 25 28 33 2 700-850 TADV 20 20 26 25 26 38 31 4 1 -4 3 13 7 LAND (KM) 1587 1532 1468 1448 1442 1559 1756 1805 1792 1817 1845 1945 2084 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.1 25.1 27.4 29.4 30.5 30.9 31.3 32.0 32.5 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 50.6 51.6 52.5 53.2 53.8 54.1 53.4 51.5 48.9 46.0 43.1 39.8 36.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 11 12 13 13 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 38 42 46 46 42 45 31 20 19 14 9 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. 0. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/13/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/13/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)