* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 64 63 65 68 66 68 69 71 69 69 63 V (KT) LAND 60 61 64 63 65 68 66 68 69 71 69 69 63 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 61 60 60 59 57 55 56 59 62 64 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 14 22 21 34 32 33 24 22 27 31 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 16 9 7 4 0 -6 0 3 3 5 1 SHEAR DIR 258 262 255 258 246 251 262 253 266 270 258 251 250 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 153 154 150 142 137 133 132 128 123 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 139 139 138 130 123 118 115 115 111 107 102 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 60 63 57 57 61 56 44 42 39 40 38 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 24 20 21 26 26 29 31 32 32 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR 42 35 30 -2 0 10 15 57 96 126 140 161 173 200 MB DIV 64 68 45 17 58 67 57 30 27 22 28 14 5 700-850 TADV 21 19 32 26 37 24 17 0 12 7 12 9 16 LAND (KM) 1517 1465 1427 1453 1492 1653 1858 1757 1719 1730 1814 1882 1949 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.3 26.5 28.4 29.9 31.0 31.7 32.3 32.6 33.4 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 51.7 52.6 53.4 53.8 54.2 53.8 52.5 50.6 48.2 45.4 42.4 39.4 36.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 13 11 9 9 10 11 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 40 33 37 41 31 20 17 12 3 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 3. 5. 8. 6. 8. 9. 11. 9. 9. 3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/13/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 3( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)