* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP112012 09/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 51 51 53 49 40 29 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 51 51 53 49 40 29 20 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 45 42 40 37 33 28 22 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 22 15 16 12 9 8 7 7 3 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -7 -1 3 0 1 -1 0 -1 -5 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 351 341 352 356 313 297 311 4 2 75 170 229 251 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.3 25.7 25.0 23.9 22.1 21.1 20.6 20.4 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 135 130 126 120 113 101 82 70 63 61 56 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 8 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 66 60 60 60 55 56 50 50 54 54 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 15 15 17 16 18 17 16 14 12 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -10 -9 10 7 12 10 -5 -31 -42 -52 -35 -42 200 MB DIV 36 26 47 26 28 6 10 -17 -37 -26 -6 24 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -11 -6 -2 -11 -2 -2 5 0 4 3 LAND (KM) 393 440 413 392 392 425 420 518 564 616 641 648 653 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.6 19.9 21.0 22.3 23.4 24.3 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.7 110.4 111.2 112.0 113.6 115.4 117.3 119.1 120.2 120.7 120.9 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 10 11 10 8 4 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 12 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 4. -5. -16. -25. -29. -36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 KRISTY 09/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)