* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/13/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 63 65 65 66 65 66 64 66 66 62 V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 63 65 65 66 65 66 64 66 66 62 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 60 60 60 58 57 57 59 62 65 66 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 21 18 21 30 31 27 18 21 26 32 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 14 7 9 9 3 -2 0 2 3 7 1 0 SHEAR DIR 258 260 258 258 240 257 253 256 248 250 242 247 229 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 152 152 145 138 134 132 130 126 122 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 138 137 135 125 118 116 114 112 109 105 99 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 9 7 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 59 62 60 59 62 61 55 46 45 43 37 37 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 19 22 23 24 27 27 28 27 30 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 30 22 -1 -5 -5 -7 30 52 102 95 122 145 169 200 MB DIV 76 52 20 62 89 59 91 24 29 8 31 10 24 700-850 TADV 30 31 30 33 31 23 2 1 -2 1 8 5 5 LAND (KM) 1469 1446 1436 1500 1573 1778 1781 1704 1699 1763 1858 1926 1973 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.3 25.3 26.5 27.7 29.6 30.7 31.6 32.2 32.5 32.7 33.5 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 52.6 53.3 54.0 54.1 54.2 53.3 51.8 49.6 46.8 43.9 41.2 38.4 35.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 39 34 36 42 32 25 20 13 6 0 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 14 CX,CY: -7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 4. 6. 6. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/13/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/13/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 2( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)