* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP112012 09/13/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 44 45 45 38 28 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 44 45 45 38 28 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 42 39 37 33 29 24 19 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 16 17 18 7 10 6 7 3 8 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -1 -1 -3 4 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 338 340 337 316 317 294 327 17 26 114 194 220 255 SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.3 24.2 23.0 22.1 21.2 20.0 19.7 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 129 126 123 117 104 91 81 71 58 57 59 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 59 61 58 57 53 49 51 53 54 49 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 17 18 16 13 14 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -8 10 6 9 14 9 -17 -30 -42 -46 -37 -28 200 MB DIV 23 35 13 21 34 39 6 -31 -16 3 10 0 -21 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -9 -3 -2 -15 -3 -9 1 1 1 2 -3 LAND (KM) 422 382 363 373 400 434 486 543 616 659 666 646 589 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.5 21.7 23.3 23.9 24.0 24.5 25.5 26.0 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.6 111.4 112.2 112.9 114.9 116.8 118.3 119.5 120.5 121.2 121.2 120.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 12 10 6 5 5 4 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. 1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -7. -17. -24. -32. -39. -46. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 KRISTY 09/13/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)