* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/14/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 63 62 65 66 67 72 73 76 74 73 V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 63 62 65 66 67 72 73 76 74 73 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 60 60 59 57 56 58 62 67 72 74 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 22 24 27 35 27 16 16 15 22 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 15 9 8 11 -6 4 -2 3 0 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 240 239 244 230 237 249 247 262 236 233 224 221 229 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.3 26.7 26.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 152 150 141 136 133 133 129 123 118 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 138 135 131 121 117 115 116 113 108 103 96 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -51.4 -50.9 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 60 59 57 46 48 43 41 36 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 20 19 24 21 25 27 26 30 31 34 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -5 1 5 6 31 49 76 106 123 134 156 159 200 MB DIV 54 39 65 89 69 82 42 27 7 35 27 20 22 700-850 TADV 39 33 42 35 16 8 3 10 3 7 2 2 -10 LAND (KM) 1442 1464 1498 1580 1668 1764 1712 1719 1766 1826 1901 2023 1991 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.5 26.6 27.8 28.9 30.7 31.4 31.7 31.9 32.4 33.3 34.2 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.4 53.8 54.2 54.2 54.1 53.0 50.7 48.2 45.6 42.6 39.2 35.7 32.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 10 11 11 12 14 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 39 32 38 42 37 26 19 17 12 8 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. -1. 2. 3. 2. 6. 6. 9. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 3. 2. 5. 6. 7. 12. 13. 16. 14. 13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/14/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/14/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)