* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP112012 09/14/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 44 44 43 40 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 44 44 43 40 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 41 38 35 32 28 22 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 17 17 13 12 11 7 5 9 6 16 17 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 339 347 319 306 292 314 20 19 115 174 219 268 302 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.0 24.0 22.5 21.3 20.7 21.0 21.1 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 125 122 120 113 102 86 72 65 68 68 65 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 55 57 55 48 50 52 46 49 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 18 17 17 17 15 15 11 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -10 11 11 13 10 12 0 -33 -45 -69 -37 -38 -24 200 MB DIV 24 25 32 48 50 31 -17 -27 -21 1 -1 -12 -29 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -4 0 -3 -12 3 -6 4 -1 -1 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 384 380 394 412 449 428 537 567 591 571 488 451 450 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.5 21.0 22.4 23.2 24.0 24.8 25.6 26.2 26.7 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.5 112.2 113.1 113.9 115.6 117.3 118.8 119.9 120.2 119.6 119.4 119.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 9 10 10 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -9. -11. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. 2. -4. -4. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -1. -1. -2. -5. -13. -21. -32. -36. -44. -50. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 KRISTY 09/14/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)