* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/14/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 64 66 69 66 70 71 72 68 68 64 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 64 66 69 66 70 71 72 68 68 64 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 60 60 59 58 57 59 62 64 66 65 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 26 31 34 29 27 20 26 20 26 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 9 6 4 0 1 -1 1 -2 6 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 246 235 232 243 239 247 258 250 236 219 232 218 257 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 152 149 144 137 134 134 129 124 120 112 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 135 131 124 118 116 116 112 108 104 97 91 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 5 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 62 59 50 44 43 41 39 36 36 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 24 23 26 28 25 28 29 32 30 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 14 9 0 30 49 79 88 113 127 146 141 200 MB DIV 44 65 85 62 67 86 9 27 28 35 8 19 -5 700-850 TADV 29 37 34 27 20 3 6 7 2 2 -2 -9 -7 LAND (KM) 1467 1526 1594 1701 1809 1727 1705 1733 1789 1869 1976 2080 1929 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.9 28.0 29.1 30.1 31.2 31.7 32.1 32.6 33.2 33.9 34.9 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 53.9 54.1 54.2 53.8 53.4 51.6 48.9 46.0 43.0 40.0 36.9 33.9 31.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 10 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 34 37 35 25 18 12 10 7 2 6 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 13 CX,CY: -4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 4. 8. 8. 10. 8. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 6. 10. 11. 12. 8. 8. 4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/14/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/14/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)