* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP112012 09/14/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 49 48 49 40 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 49 48 49 40 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 50 49 48 44 39 33 26 21 17 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 18 11 11 14 13 16 1 6 14 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 4 2 -4 -3 -2 -2 -4 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 343 329 321 317 315 324 348 36 79 192 212 231 162 SST (C) 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.4 24.6 23.3 22.1 21.3 21.2 22.1 22.8 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 122 120 117 109 94 81 72 70 80 87 93 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 60 56 55 54 52 50 49 48 49 49 46 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 14 15 14 17 13 12 9 8 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 6 2 6 6 4 7 -28 -42 -75 -57 -53 -28 -26 200 MB DIV 19 17 14 9 15 4 -30 -13 5 -2 -10 -16 -30 700-850 TADV -9 -5 0 -1 -12 -4 -9 -3 2 1 -7 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 382 382 401 430 416 458 507 511 509 470 370 307 274 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.9 23.9 24.8 25.6 26.2 26.6 26.6 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.3 113.0 113.8 114.6 116.3 117.8 118.9 119.5 119.4 118.5 117.8 117.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 5 4 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -12. -15. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -10. -21. -33. -38. -45. -49. -52. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 KRISTY 09/14/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)