* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/14/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 64 65 68 67 69 70 67 64 60 53 V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 64 65 68 67 69 70 67 64 60 53 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 60 59 58 57 57 60 63 64 63 60 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 29 30 30 33 29 20 21 22 26 27 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 6 1 -3 3 -2 2 0 6 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 245 235 242 245 247 250 254 234 234 233 225 229 233 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.5 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 146 141 137 134 133 131 126 121 116 110 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 132 127 122 117 115 116 115 110 104 99 95 90 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -50.9 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 5 5 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 63 64 59 55 51 47 44 42 40 36 38 36 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 23 23 26 27 30 29 31 32 33 32 32 28 850 MB ENV VOR -11 4 2 -4 7 45 72 100 120 131 156 152 144 200 MB DIV 55 73 69 75 96 47 24 21 30 20 13 11 1 700-850 TADV 46 38 20 23 8 -5 4 0 3 3 4 3 8 LAND (KM) 1592 1683 1778 1817 1738 1706 1726 1800 1887 1958 2000 2080 1894 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.5 29.6 30.4 31.1 31.6 31.9 32.1 32.6 33.4 34.4 35.4 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.6 53.5 53.3 52.5 51.6 49.5 47.0 44.0 40.8 38.0 35.8 33.3 30.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 10 10 10 12 13 13 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 19 15 11 10 8 6 0 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 4. 5. 8. 7. 9. 10. 7. 4. 0. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/14/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/14/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 3( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)