* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP112012 09/14/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 43 44 42 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 43 44 42 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 44 43 41 38 34 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 13 9 12 12 5 9 11 10 17 14 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 -1 1 -4 -2 -1 -4 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 318 318 302 299 338 27 23 112 194 211 275 253 248 SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.9 23.8 22.1 21.0 20.6 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 118 115 112 100 82 69 64 62 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 58 55 55 53 53 50 45 41 39 41 40 37 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 18 15 17 17 14 14 11 11 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 9 3 4 -4 -35 -54 -73 -54 -49 -28 -19 200 MB DIV 19 29 12 -6 32 -13 -21 -10 11 0 -13 -21 -10 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 -8 -7 -2 -1 4 3 -6 -5 -13 -7 LAND (KM) 401 429 439 427 438 500 526 540 522 493 456 401 335 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.6 24.6 25.5 26.3 26.9 27.3 28.0 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.5 114.3 115.1 115.8 117.3 118.9 119.8 120.0 119.9 119.6 119.3 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 5 4 3 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -16. -18. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 3. 4. 1. 0. -3. -3. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. -2. -1. -3. -11. -22. -34. -39. -46. -49. -53. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 KRISTY 09/14/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)