* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/14/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 62 64 64 66 66 67 66 63 58 56 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 62 64 64 66 66 67 66 63 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 59 58 57 56 57 58 60 61 60 57 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 27 31 30 31 31 24 25 23 27 31 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 3 1 0 -3 1 0 3 2 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 231 243 247 244 249 259 251 255 236 231 215 221 227 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.7 25.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 141 138 135 134 134 129 124 120 111 106 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 127 121 118 116 116 117 113 108 103 95 90 86 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 8 8 9 7 6 4 5 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 56 48 44 41 38 32 34 35 37 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 24 24 27 28 28 30 30 31 33 33 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -7 -4 2 8 42 78 107 131 128 136 138 127 200 MB DIV 60 70 80 97 73 14 34 44 32 9 16 11 25 700-850 TADV 31 22 21 16 10 8 2 0 9 4 6 6 0 LAND (KM) 1646 1759 1830 1787 1745 1747 1790 1878 1967 2041 2059 1983 1813 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.3 30.2 30.7 31.1 31.4 31.7 32.0 32.6 33.5 35.0 35.9 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 53.8 53.2 52.6 51.7 50.7 48.4 45.5 42.3 39.2 36.4 34.1 31.8 29.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 11 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 19 12 9 7 9 7 8 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 13 CX,CY: 1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/14/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/14/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)