* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP112012 09/14/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 47 41 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 47 41 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 41 37 32 26 21 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 11 10 4 10 6 10 13 10 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -1 0 -3 -4 -4 -6 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 310 305 305 313 332 339 53 197 196 239 297 339 61 SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.8 23.7 21.9 21.1 21.3 21.3 20.7 20.4 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 118 115 111 99 79 70 71 70 64 61 57 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 52 54 56 51 48 43 44 45 45 44 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 14 16 17 15 13 11 9 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 5 9 0 -2 -3 -21 -44 -67 -56 -55 -45 -46 -26 200 MB DIV 43 40 16 13 14 -16 -9 9 3 -3 -8 -15 -7 700-850 TADV 1 0 -8 -8 -2 -4 0 5 3 -1 -2 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 408 439 439 429 440 528 549 526 443 435 499 521 591 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.5 24.6 25.6 26.4 26.6 26.4 26.6 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.7 114.5 115.2 115.9 117.6 119.2 119.7 119.2 119.2 119.8 120.1 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 9 9 9 7 4 3 1 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -8. -13. -15. -17. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. -4. -12. -24. -32. -40. -47. -52. -58. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 KRISTY 09/14/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)