* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 69 69 68 68 66 65 60 55 50 44 V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 69 69 68 68 66 65 60 55 50 44 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 67 66 66 64 64 63 62 60 56 52 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 29 31 29 30 29 28 29 35 35 32 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 1 -2 3 -2 1 -2 3 0 -1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 241 254 245 253 261 263 254 255 236 228 224 224 225 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.8 25.3 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 138 136 135 136 129 125 119 112 106 101 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 121 119 118 117 120 114 109 103 95 89 84 81 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 6 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 49 42 39 37 39 33 33 33 35 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 26 27 28 28 31 30 32 32 33 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -14 -7 -1 11 47 84 107 113 107 114 110 99 200 MB DIV 76 90 81 61 15 -6 14 32 21 6 6 13 23 700-850 TADV 26 20 12 15 18 5 2 3 7 4 2 6 4 LAND (KM) 1785 1829 1761 1757 1760 1823 1932 2020 2076 2091 2069 2020 1968 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.3 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.3 31.5 32.2 33.3 34.6 35.9 36.9 37.6 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 52.4 51.5 50.2 48.9 45.8 42.2 38.9 36.1 34.1 32.9 32.1 31.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 12 15 15 14 12 9 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 11 8 8 9 8 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 13 CX,CY: 3/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -5. -10. -15. -21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/15/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/15/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)