* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/15/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 67 66 65 65 66 64 59 53 47 43 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 67 66 65 65 66 64 59 53 47 43 V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 66 65 64 62 61 60 59 56 52 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 28 33 32 33 29 21 25 30 31 32 35 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 2 2 -1 0 0 0 4 3 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 241 238 250 251 268 259 251 245 237 220 227 231 235 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.8 26.1 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 137 137 132 126 123 115 108 104 101 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 118 117 120 120 116 111 107 98 91 87 84 81 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 8 7 8 6 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 56 53 45 42 42 39 38 34 33 30 37 36 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 27 27 28 28 28 30 32 34 33 31 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -12 -2 12 38 72 98 122 118 119 115 98 98 200 MB DIV 97 96 57 20 23 18 26 27 24 28 4 18 -10 700-850 TADV 21 11 8 15 9 4 4 10 2 4 1 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 1813 1777 1747 1774 1811 1925 2036 2109 2101 2030 2034 1962 1864 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.8 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.1 31.5 32.4 33.7 35.0 36.1 37.1 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 50.9 49.7 48.2 46.6 43.4 39.9 36.9 34.4 32.9 32.3 31.5 30.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 13 11 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 7 7 8 2 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -6. -12. -18. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/15/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/15/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)