* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP112012 09/15/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 34 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 34 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 35 33 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 9 4 9 10 8 7 16 9 7 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 -4 -5 1 2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 297 308 343 29 17 61 110 171 242 305 343 32 48 SST (C) 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.5 24.1 23.0 22.3 22.1 22.2 22.6 23.4 23.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 112 107 103 90 82 79 80 85 93 94 94 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 52 55 55 54 49 50 45 44 42 41 36 36 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 13 13 13 11 9 7 6 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -6 -11 -14 -22 -41 -58 -57 -57 -33 -28 -11 0 200 MB DIV 16 12 0 -22 -31 -34 -1 14 12 -6 -24 -39 -35 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -1 2 -2 3 2 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 0 LAND (KM) 419 405 406 434 468 464 431 389 357 299 225 157 94 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.1 23.7 24.6 25.5 26.2 26.7 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 114.9 115.4 116.2 116.9 118.0 118.5 118.5 118.4 117.9 117.1 116.5 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 8 6 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -3. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -8. -16. -27. -35. -43. -47. -51. -54. -58. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 KRISTY 09/15/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)