* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/15/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 68 68 67 71 70 65 65 60 56 49 V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 68 68 67 71 70 65 65 60 56 49 V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 71 71 70 68 66 66 64 61 57 52 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 30 26 26 23 19 12 22 25 32 28 29 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 4 2 0 4 2 1 3 3 2 5 6 SHEAR DIR 240 248 249 269 262 252 255 242 234 227 216 235 260 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.2 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 137 135 129 124 122 114 108 102 97 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 118 120 119 113 108 105 98 92 86 82 78 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 7 8 7 8 6 6 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 51 45 42 41 40 38 36 36 35 40 42 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 28 27 29 30 33 34 31 35 35 36 35 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -6 17 35 54 92 120 127 128 119 120 99 110 200 MB DIV 86 52 11 1 4 18 49 20 19 26 57 17 12 700-850 TADV 11 5 11 16 9 3 7 3 6 4 4 -2 -10 LAND (KM) 1780 1780 1788 1837 1893 1989 2081 2161 2024 1924 1908 1806 1705 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.0 31.1 31.0 30.9 31.1 31.6 32.4 33.5 34.7 36.1 37.1 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 50.6 49.3 48.0 46.5 44.9 41.8 38.8 36.0 33.6 31.8 30.8 29.7 28.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 6 8 5 0 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 14 CX,CY: 13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 6. 3. 7. 7. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. 1. 0. -5. -5. -10. -14. -21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/15/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/15/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 3( 11) 3( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)