* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/15/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 70 68 68 68 69 64 63 57 55 50 50 V (KT) LAND 70 71 70 68 68 68 69 64 63 57 55 50 50 V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 72 72 71 68 66 64 61 57 53 50 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 31 29 27 26 19 22 25 25 30 22 29 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 3 4 1 7 2 2 SHEAR DIR 255 255 272 272 250 257 231 256 229 224 214 233 241 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.1 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.5 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 137 134 131 126 122 115 108 103 99 97 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 123 120 116 111 106 98 92 87 82 80 81 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 42 40 40 40 42 36 37 35 37 38 40 40 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 27 25 28 29 32 30 33 31 34 33 37 850 MB ENV VOR -5 20 41 59 79 89 94 104 109 103 96 107 146 200 MB DIV 48 16 15 6 16 13 14 13 31 25 61 -5 17 700-850 TADV 7 4 11 8 8 13 9 8 3 7 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1789 1822 1866 1933 2011 2124 2154 2012 1936 1937 1941 1910 1886 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.8 31.2 32.1 33.2 34.6 35.8 36.9 37.1 36.7 LONG(DEG W) 49.1 47.5 45.8 43.9 42.0 38.7 35.8 33.6 32.0 31.3 31.2 30.9 30.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 15 14 12 10 8 6 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 7 0 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 5. 3. 5. 3. 5. 3. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -6. -7. -13. -15. -20. -20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/15/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/15/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 3( 11) 3( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)