* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP112012 09/15/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 33 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 33 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 38 36 34 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 12 13 14 8 16 20 23 34 39 35 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 333 4 11 37 54 123 172 219 252 254 257 241 N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.4 23.9 23.4 22.9 22.1 21.0 20.3 19.2 17.9 17.6 17.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 107 101 95 89 81 70 63 60 60 59 57 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 48 49 45 42 36 34 26 26 24 21 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 9 8 6 5 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -12 -27 -39 -40 -64 -53 -58 -42 -28 -10 -4 N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -35 -43 -37 -35 -10 14 8 7 15 -29 -7 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 1 4 2 0 -3 -2 -4 -6 0 N/A LAND (KM) 370 405 405 416 423 426 443 437 396 402 217 169 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.7 24.4 24.8 25.1 25.7 27.0 28.0 29.5 30.9 32.6 33.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.1 116.9 117.5 118.0 118.6 119.4 119.7 120.1 121.0 120.7 120.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 6 5 6 6 7 8 8 5 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -20. -21. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -13. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -12. -24. -35. -47. -55. -63. -69. -76. -80. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 KRISTY 09/15/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)