* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/15/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 49 56 60 60 57 48 39 30 19 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 49 56 60 60 57 48 39 30 19 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 45 49 51 50 45 38 31 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 6 7 11 8 5 7 10 9 16 19 25 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 0 5 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 53 68 21 19 7 330 260 219 222 212 215 234 251 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.9 26.9 25.7 24.4 23.6 23.3 22.9 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 149 148 142 132 119 105 95 92 89 86 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 60 66 66 67 70 73 72 67 64 55 52 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 15 17 17 17 16 13 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR 32 43 46 38 36 34 31 26 9 -2 -11 -10 -24 200 MB DIV 55 57 57 47 51 53 34 57 49 37 -1 3 2 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 3 5 8 8 4 3 8 LAND (KM) 1762 1793 1825 1839 1854 1862 1860 1858 1848 1848 1839 1881 1963 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.8 16.0 17.3 18.5 19.3 19.6 20.1 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.1 124.6 125.1 125.6 126.6 127.8 129.1 130.0 130.6 130.7 131.5 132.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 8 9 8 6 4 3 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 18 19 21 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 16. 16. 14. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 6. 2. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 25. 25. 22. 13. 4. -5. -16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/15/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)