* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 66 65 65 67 67 64 63 63 58 52 48 V (KT) LAND 70 68 66 65 65 67 67 64 63 63 58 52 48 V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 69 68 66 64 63 62 60 57 54 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 28 26 21 23 20 19 14 21 27 24 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 6 1 -2 2 3 3 -2 4 3 2 SHEAR DIR 256 272 278 251 245 253 239 233 216 205 211 263 281 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 134 131 127 124 118 111 106 102 99 97 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 120 118 113 108 101 94 88 84 82 80 79 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -53.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 44 43 41 41 41 38 34 36 37 40 44 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 26 29 30 33 34 31 33 35 34 31 30 850 MB ENV VOR 13 36 59 82 83 100 109 121 117 108 89 91 84 200 MB DIV 18 14 -2 20 31 24 10 14 27 45 28 -22 -59 700-850 TADV 14 13 9 16 4 14 2 2 1 3 -6 -15 -21 LAND (KM) 1843 1902 1973 2036 2109 2182 2085 2003 1987 1987 1954 1899 1821 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.6 30.7 31.6 32.9 34.2 35.5 36.5 37.1 37.6 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 45.7 43.8 41.9 40.0 36.9 34.6 33.0 32.1 31.6 31.4 30.9 30.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 13 11 8 6 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 0 11 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -6. -7. -7. -12. -18. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/16/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/16/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 3( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)