* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 56 55 55 46 39 29 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 56 55 55 46 39 29 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 45 48 48 44 38 32 26 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 8 5 4 6 8 11 8 14 24 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -4 -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 6 1 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 69 29 7 357 305 288 204 214 220 228 241 249 237 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.1 26.0 24.9 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 148 144 134 122 110 102 98 96 95 96 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.2 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 63 63 67 65 70 67 67 67 64 54 42 33 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 19 17 19 16 15 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 35 42 35 36 39 34 20 11 -2 -9 -5 2 0 200 MB DIV 66 58 60 65 78 18 48 33 34 20 -21 -4 -4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 7 6 8 3 2 0 4 LAND (KM) 1766 1790 1815 1832 1853 1862 1818 1800 1828 1907 2036 2136 2002 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.8 17.1 18.1 18.8 19.2 19.6 19.6 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 123.8 124.4 124.9 125.7 126.4 127.6 128.4 129.1 130.0 131.2 132.9 134.4 135.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 8 8 7 6 5 7 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 19 23 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 6. 4. 7. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 21. 20. 20. 11. 4. -6. -16. -24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/16/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)