* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/16/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 70 71 73 68 70 66 62 56 53 53 V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 70 71 73 68 70 66 62 56 53 53 V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 70 69 68 66 64 62 59 55 52 50 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 24 22 24 20 19 20 18 23 28 22 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 3 1 -1 2 8 3 -1 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 272 275 267 249 242 244 238 211 214 215 232 257 276 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.7 24.8 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 130 127 126 120 113 108 104 100 98 100 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 117 114 110 104 96 91 86 82 79 82 84 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -53.1 -54.0 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 41 39 40 40 40 36 35 34 40 43 41 39 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 27 29 30 34 30 34 34 34 32 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 33 62 79 84 94 106 118 125 109 98 102 126 134 200 MB DIV 14 5 13 31 34 3 0 46 33 32 -22 -6 -43 700-850 TADV 12 0 13 7 5 6 5 0 4 0 -6 -26 -12 LAND (KM) 1903 1968 2044 2087 2141 2158 2041 2000 2017 2005 1980 1970 1938 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.6 30.6 31.0 31.3 32.4 33.7 34.9 36.1 36.8 37.1 36.8 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 45.6 43.7 41.7 40.0 38.2 35.7 33.7 32.6 32.1 31.9 31.7 31.5 31.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 15 14 11 9 7 5 3 1 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 0 1 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 15 CX,CY: 15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 6. 3. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. -2. 0. -4. -8. -14. -17. -17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/16/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/16/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 4( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)