* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP112012 09/16/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 30 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 17 13 7 18 22 18 19 16 27 32 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 -5 N/A SHEAR DIR 7 27 53 85 138 186 224 269 296 289 271 293 N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.5 22.8 22.3 21.7 21.5 22.1 22.2 22.4 21.8 22.0 24.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 97 89 83 76 73 80 81 83 77 79 108 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 46 42 41 37 33 30 28 28 24 25 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -38 -43 -50 -66 -56 -53 -26 -7 -5 7 14 N/A 200 MB DIV -42 -32 -26 -20 -2 5 9 -5 0 -22 -12 -25 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 5 4 3 -2 -5 -1 -3 -3 3 0 N/A LAND (KM) 447 439 438 434 440 417 344 293 192 174 78 -25 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.4 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.6 27.1 28.0 28.7 29.6 30.8 30.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.4 118.1 118.5 118.9 119.0 118.4 118.0 117.3 117.6 117.1 115.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 7 6 5 3 4 5 4 5 5 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -14. -13. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -12. -18. -29. -39. -46. -52. -55. -60. -61. -63. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112012 KRISTY 09/16/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)