* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/16/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 61 64 65 63 54 46 33 25 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 61 64 65 63 54 46 33 25 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 60 63 65 65 60 52 42 34 27 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 5 7 4 9 13 17 22 18 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -4 -5 0 -3 2 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 9 358 351 319 300 261 248 246 229 238 243 232 235 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.0 25.8 24.5 23.6 23.1 23.4 23.6 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 145 142 133 120 106 96 91 95 98 97 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 65 68 68 72 74 70 66 63 62 53 47 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 15 16 16 16 14 14 10 9 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 34 30 27 30 31 17 9 -11 -19 -31 -18 -19 -17 200 MB DIV 66 61 46 64 64 28 59 31 11 -14 -15 0 12 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 1 4 8 9 5 6 7 5 LAND (KM) 1795 1812 1831 1841 1854 1854 1811 1781 1772 1827 1955 2135 1982 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.9 17.3 18.5 19.4 19.8 19.6 19.3 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 124.2 124.8 125.3 125.9 126.5 127.6 128.5 129.2 129.8 130.7 132.0 133.8 135.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 7 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 23 28 25 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. -3. -6. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 15. 13. 4. -4. -17. -25. -33. -40. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/16/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)