* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/16/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 70 69 69 65 63 61 55 51 51 51 V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 70 69 69 65 63 61 55 51 51 51 V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 69 68 67 64 62 60 56 52 49 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 15 19 26 18 19 24 24 30 27 30 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 8 1 -6 0 0 1 3 0 3 6 -4 SHEAR DIR 284 272 249 253 256 231 233 207 205 214 230 229 209 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.7 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 126 125 123 117 110 105 100 97 99 99 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 116 112 110 107 100 93 88 83 79 81 81 80 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 38 39 39 40 39 40 36 37 43 37 35 29 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 30 33 32 32 34 31 33 35 33 34 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR 59 79 87 96 101 117 129 122 112 99 131 170 230 200 MB DIV 0 27 47 46 -7 15 16 37 36 12 -2 -30 -30 700-850 TADV 16 12 11 2 13 0 2 0 0 -6 -8 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 2010 2064 2128 2160 2171 2033 1973 1955 1955 1929 1929 1903 1859 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.7 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.9 34.3 35.5 36.4 36.7 36.4 36.4 36.7 LONG(DEG W) 42.8 41.0 39.2 37.7 36.1 34.0 32.6 31.7 31.2 31.0 30.9 30.6 30.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 14 12 10 8 6 3 0 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 0 2 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 22 CX,CY: 22/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 5. 3. 3. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -15. -19. -19. -19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/16/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/16/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 3( 11) 3( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)