* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/16/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 56 55 52 41 29 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 56 55 52 41 29 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 56 58 59 57 52 43 34 26 21 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 5 9 6 9 11 16 24 28 23 22 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -6 -4 -3 0 4 0 -2 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 349 1 2 267 283 234 231 219 228 244 253 245 245 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.2 24.6 23.4 22.9 23.0 23.4 23.4 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 145 142 138 125 108 95 89 91 96 97 96 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 66 66 70 72 67 68 66 61 51 48 43 37 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 16 16 16 15 16 14 12 9 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 30 26 26 27 15 12 -2 -11 -23 -27 -23 -26 -17 200 MB DIV 60 38 34 54 38 47 42 36 0 -8 -6 -2 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 0 1 7 12 8 6 4 4 7 6 LAND (KM) 1808 1823 1841 1842 1846 1795 1748 1760 1818 1926 2094 2000 1739 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.9 18.5 19.6 20.1 20.1 19.7 19.5 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 124.8 125.4 125.9 126.4 126.9 127.9 128.8 129.8 130.8 132.0 133.6 135.7 138.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 9 8 6 5 7 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 28 25 14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -9. -21. -31. -40. -48. -54. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/16/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)