* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/16/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 69 69 66 66 61 60 55 50 47 50 V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 69 69 66 66 61 60 55 50 47 50 V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 69 68 66 63 62 60 57 54 51 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 17 22 22 18 18 17 21 22 24 25 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 1 -5 2 -3 4 5 3 0 2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 275 251 256 258 244 234 218 209 205 225 208 207 201 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.5 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.3 24.2 23.9 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 123 119 112 107 103 99 96 96 94 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 111 109 107 103 95 90 87 82 79 79 78 78 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 43 38 43 42 41 35 36 40 42 38 32 28 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 32 33 34 34 32 34 33 35 34 34 32 36 850 MB ENV VOR 71 81 86 99 111 118 124 125 108 103 145 219 247 200 MB DIV 15 36 35 6 25 -2 33 32 47 -9 -10 -13 -7 700-850 TADV 8 14 -5 15 8 -1 -1 1 -6 -6 -19 -23 5 LAND (KM) 2100 2153 2214 2129 2038 1934 1911 1912 1886 1834 1785 1715 1632 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.0 31.2 31.7 32.2 33.4 34.6 35.8 36.7 37.0 36.9 36.9 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 40.2 38.6 37.0 35.7 34.4 32.6 31.7 31.0 30.5 30.0 29.4 28.6 27.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 14 13 12 11 8 7 6 4 2 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 22 CX,CY: 22/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 0. 2. 1. 0. -2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -9. -10. -15. -20. -23. -20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/16/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/16/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 3( 11) 3( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)