* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP122012 09/16/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 62 62 61 54 43 28 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 62 62 61 54 43 28 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 59 59 56 49 40 31 24 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 7 5 4 6 8 13 22 28 27 31 34 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -6 -4 -1 -2 0 4 0 0 -4 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 2 328 293 320 259 218 236 219 225 235 252 258 251 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.6 25.2 23.8 23.0 22.8 23.1 23.3 23.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 141 137 129 114 99 90 88 92 95 96 98 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 65 69 70 65 65 65 57 52 47 39 32 31 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 15 12 9 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 27 15 18 14 -4 -13 -20 -17 -23 -12 -17 200 MB DIV 44 43 41 21 18 69 46 13 -2 -15 -3 25 1 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 0 6 7 10 10 3 3 6 5 10 LAND (KM) 1808 1818 1832 1820 1797 1774 1768 1815 1888 2031 2072 1833 1541 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.9 19.2 20.0 20.3 20.2 19.8 19.4 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 125.3 125.9 126.4 127.0 127.5 128.6 129.6 130.7 131.7 133.2 135.0 137.3 140.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 8 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 19 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. -1. -12. -27. -39. -50. -58. -65. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122012 LANE 09/16/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)